Monsoon is here

THE southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast on Thursday, two days earlier than usual, due to favourable conditions, said the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

The early onset of the monsoon can also be attributed to the effect of cyclone Remal, which pulled the monsoonal flow to the Bay of Bengal.

The expected date for the monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1. Afterwards, it advances northwards and covers the entire country by July 15.

The monsoon arrives in northeast India nearly five days after entering Kerala. However, in years when the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon is more active, it advances to Kerala and the northeast at the same time.

This year, spurred on by cyclone Remal, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast earlier than usual. On Sunday, the cyclone ripped through West Bengal and Bangladesh and brought the monsoonal flow to the Bay of Bengal, leading to the early onset over the northeast, according to weather scientists. 

“Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala and advanced into most parts of northeast India today, the 30th May, 2024," PTI quoted the IMD as saying on Thursday.

The weather agency has set a standard to identify the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala. According to PTI news agency, the IMD declares the onset of the monsoon over Kerala if around 14 stations in the state and neighbouring areas receive 2.5 mm or more rainfall for consecutive days after May 10. Additionally, the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) is low, and the wind direction is southwesterly. 

OLR is a valuable tool in identifying and studying monsoon patterns.

India to receive above-average rainfall this year, La Nina to return
India is likely to witness above-average rainfall this year.

The weather agency expects this year's monsoon rains to be 106% of the long-term average, reported Reuters. However, according to IMD, the average or normal rainfall is between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

The La Nina weather phenomenon, which is responsible for the increase in rainfall in India, will come into effect from July this year.

Above-average rainfall is likely to help ease food inflation, which skyrocketed last year because of scant rainfall. In 2023, the government responded to depleted reservoir levels and poor food production by imposing curbs on exports of rice, wheat, sugar and onions.

Good monsoon rainfall is likely to help recover food production in 2024, paving the way for the resumption of exports.