Hurricane Isaias: 63% of Gulf oil output shut in as Florida, Alabama brace for landfall
Hurricane Isaias strengthened to Category 2 as it approached the northern Gulf Coast, prompting evacuations and preparations. Forecasters warned of damaging winds, storm surge, heavy rain, flooding and possible tornadoes.
ISAIAS strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane as it barreled toward the U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday, prompting orders for tourists to abandon beaches for safer spots inland, sending locals scurrying for gas and groceries and leading fishing crews to secure their boats before the potentially destructive storm’s arrival.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic season was forecast to intensify rapidly and cause dangerous conditions in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi when it makes landfall late Friday or early Saturday. Heavy rain and flooding were possible into the weekend as far north as Tennessee and North Carolina.
Here's a look at the key updates and possible impacts:
1. What is Hurricane Isaias and how strong is it?
Isaias is the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. On Thursday, it strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 kph), according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The storm was moving northeast at 14 mph (22 kph) and was centred about 260 miles (415 km) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
It was forecast to intensify further before making landfall along the northern Gulf Coast.
“We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” said Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
“Today is the day to prepare and get ready and be in your safe place by tomorrow as conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the northern Gulf Coast as Isaias approaches,” he added.
2. Which areas are under warning?
A hurricane warning was in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay-Gulf County line in Florida. A storm surge warning extended from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida.
Forecasters warned that storm surges could reach 5 to 7 feet (1.5 to 2.1 metres) in parts of Alabama and Mississippi. The hurricane could also bring up to 15 inches (38 cm) of rain to coastal areas and trigger tornadoes overnight Friday into Saturday.
Heavy rain and flooding were possible as far inland as Tennessee and North Carolina over the weekend.
The National Weather Service also warned of possible “long-duration power outages”.
3. Evacuations ordered in Florida and Alabama
Authorities ordered evacuations in vulnerable coastal areas as residents and tourists prepared for the storm.
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey ordered non-residents to leave Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Dauphin Island. Florida officials ordered mandatory evacuations in parts of Okaloosa County, while several counties announced evacuations for coastal areas.
The governors of Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency covering dozens of counties. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said about 5,000 National Guard troops were expected to mobilise by Friday.
Several Florida school districts also cancelled classes.
4. How is Hurricane Isaias affecting oil and gas production?
The Marine Minerals Administration, which monitors offshore US oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico, said on Thursday that personnel have been evacuated from 121 production platforms and five non-dynamically positioned rigs ahead of the storm.
About 63% of current oil production in the Gulf, or 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, has been shut in, the agency said, citing operator reports. Just over 1.1 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas production has also been shut in, or about 57% of total output from the region.
On Wednesday, 25% of oil production and 16% of natural gas output had been shut in.
About 9 million barrels of oil production could be lost across the Gulf through the duration of the storm, a marked increase from the 7.1 million barrels impacted by Tropical Storm Bertha in July, according to a model forecast from consulting firm Earth Science Associates.
The companies with the most exposure to the storm include BP, Chevron, ENI, Murphy Oil and Shell, among others, according to the Earth Science model.
5. Could Isaias affect oil prices?
The production cuts could affect oil markets, particularly if the hurricane damages refineries along the Gulf Coast.
Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research at S&P Global Energy, said the production cuts were significant enough to affect markets, although other Gulf hurricanes had caused larger disruptions.
