WMO warns strong El Niño could push global temperatures higher – what will be the impact?

THE United Nations' weather agency on Friday upgraded its forecast for a fast-emerging, powerful El Niño in the near future, cautioning that the climate pattern will likely push global temperatures even higher.

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), El Niño is characterised by a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Usually lasting from nine to 12 months, the phenomenon is notorious for driving up planetary heat and elevating the threat of severe weather anomalies.

What will be the impact?

The intensity of El Niño is important because it increases the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events in different parts of the world, explained Alvaro Silva, a scientist at the WMO.

"El Niño conditions have emerged in the Equatorial Pacific, and there is a remarkable agreement between forecast models that this will be a strong El Ninño," said Silva.

While the WMO originally anticipated a moderate to potentially strong event in early June, recent data have given forecasters greater confidence that strong El Niño conditions are forming in the equatorial Pacific. The agency noted that it may further escalate its projections if late-summer data indicates a "very strong" event is underway.

Seasonal models are already signalling a classic, robust El Niño. This includes abnormally dry conditions spanning Central America, the Caribbean, and parts of North and South America. Additionally, the pattern is expected to bring suppressed rainfall to South Asia during its crucial monsoon season, as well as drier trends across Indonesia and Southeast Asia.

"El Niño will also give an extra boost to global temperatures. We know that during El Niño years the global temperatures normally reach record levels," Silva said.

Separately, experts noted that Europe recently endured its most severe recorded heatwave from June 20–28, which crippled power grids, fractured infrastructure, and pushed healthcare systems to the brink. Scientists stated that this extreme heat was almost certainly fueled by ongoing climate change.

The far-reaching impacts of this latest El Niño cycle are projected to ripple across various regions of the world through the end of the year and persist well into 2027, Silva concluded.

Europe on wildfire alert after extreme heat

Europe is facing a severe wildfire crisis after historic heatwaves and prolonged drought transformed forests and countryside into highly combustible tinderboxes. Forecasters are now warning that even more extreme weather is on the horizon.

In southern France, over 800 firefighters are currently battling a massive blaze that erupted on Wednesday. The fire has devoured 12 square kilometres across the Hérault, Aude, and Bouches-du-Rhône departments, according to France Info. The fast-moving flames forced hundreds of residents to evacuate. They triggered widespread travel chaos, shutting down multiple regional roads and halting train services between Marseille and Miramas, transport operator SNCF reported.

The current crisis follows a devastating season last year, which saw the region's worst wildfires in seven years. Those blazes scorched more than 170 square kilometres, wiping out historic vineyards and local farms.

Globally, unprecedented heat and drought have sparked the worst start to a wildfire season on record. Climate scientists warn that an intensifying El Niño pattern could exacerbate these harsh conditions later this summer. The scale of the destruction is already historic, with nearly 9,000 square kilometres torched across Europe alone—marking the highest total in two decades.

In response to the immediate threat, Météo-France has placed six southern departments along the Mediterranean arc on red alert for Thursday and Friday, signalling a high risk of forest fires. Reflecting the urgency of the situation, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is scheduled to lead an emergency crisis meeting on Wednesday to address the escalating heatwaves and fire risks.

Meanwhile, fire dangers are escalating rapidly in Greece. Civil Protection Minister Evangelos Tournas warned that the country is confronting a perilous combination of unseasonably high temperatures, powerful winds, and a dense layer of dried-out vegetation, which abundant winter rains had heavily fueled.