Iran-US nuclear talks resume on Friday in Oman: What to expect amid Trump’s ‘deal or strike’ warnings

IRAN and the United States are set to resume nuclear negotiations on Friday in Oman, returning to a diplomatic track derailed by Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June and a subsequent wave of nationwide protests that triggered a deadly crackdown by Tehran.

The talks come as the United States President Donald Trump intensifies pressure on the Islamic Republic, warning of possible US military action if Iran pursues mass executions linked to the protests, and reintroducing Iran’s nuclear programme as a central foreign policy battleground after months of regional escalation.

Why Iran-US talks are restarting now

The Oman meeting is the latest attempt to revive negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme, following five rounds of talks in Rome and Muscat last year that were disrupted by the June conflict.

Israel’s campaign, which lasted 12 days, included US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran later acknowledged in November that the attacks forced it to halt all uranium enrichment, though inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have been unable to visit the bombed facilities.

With enrichment paused but the broader nuclear dispute unresolved, Washington and Tehran are returning to talks amid deep mistrust and sharply diverging objectives.

Trump’s letter to Khamenei: diplomacy backed by force

Trump launched the current diplomatic push by writing directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early 2025.

Trump dispatched the letter to Khamenei on 5 March 2025, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it. He said: "I've written them a letter saying, I hope you're going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it's going to be a terrible thing.'"

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The message set the tone for the administration’s approach: renewed diplomacy under “maximum pressure”, alongside sanctions and repeated hints that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure could be targeted.

Khamenei has warned Iran would retaliate against any attack — a threat delivered as the Islamic Republic faces internal strain following the protests and crackdown.

Oman’s role as mediator — and why it matters

Oman has again positioned itself as a key intermediary, facilitating contacts between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

The two men have met face to face after indirect talks, a rare occurrence given the decades-long absence of formal diplomatic relations between the countries.

However, the process has not been smooth. Witkoff drew criticism after suggesting that Iran could be allowed limited enrichment of 3.67% — a level set under the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated under former President Barack Obama.

Trump withdrew the United States from that agreement in 2018, and his administration now insists Iran must accept zero enrichment under any new deal — a condition Tehran has repeatedly rejected.

What the US wants: zero enrichment, missiles and proxies
The negotiations take place under explicit threats from Trump, who has framed the talks as a choice between a deal and military action.

The Trump administration is seeking a broader agreement that goes beyond the nuclear file, including:

Trump has previously issued stark warnings if diplomacy fails, including threats of “bombing the likes of which they have never seen before”.

Recent military incidents have also added tension, including the reported downing of an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln this week.

Iran’s position: sanctions relief first, ‘red lines’ on defence

Iran is expected to push for a narrower agreement focused on economic relief, demanding sanctions lifting in exchange for nuclear concessions.

Tehran has described its missile programme and national security posture as “non-negotiable” red lines, and Iranian officials have consistently rejected Washington’s insistence on eliminating all enrichment

For Iran’s leadership, the talks also take place under acute domestic pressure following protests that began in late December amid the collapse of the rial currency and escalated into nationwide demonstrations.

Authorities responded with a crackdown that killed thousands and saw tens of thousands detained.

Iran’s nuclear programme: what worries the West

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is peaceful, but officials have increasingly signalled that weaponisation could be pursued.

Iran currently enriches uranium to 60% — near weapons-grade — making it the only country in the world without a declared nuclear weapons programme to reach that level.

Under the 2015 agreement, Iran was limited to enrichment of 3.67% and a stockpile of 300 kg . The most recent IAEA assessment placed Iran’s uranium stockpile at roughly 9,870 kilograms, including a fraction enriched to 60%.

US intelligence agencies assess Iran has not yet restarted a formal weapons programme, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

Possible compromise proposals: a three-year freeze

Despite the public rigidity of both sides, mediators from Qatar, Turkey and Egypt have floated a possible framework.

Under that proposal, Iran would halt enrichment for three years and transfer its enriched stockpile to a third country, buying time for a longer-term settlement.

Analysts remain sceptical about whether the plan can overcome the central dispute: Washington’s demand for zero enrichment versus Tehran’s insistence on maintaining what it views as a sovereign right.

A long history of hostility shaping the talks

The negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of nearly half a century of US-Iran hostility.

Iran was once a key US ally under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, until the Islamic Revolution in 1979 toppled the monarchy and established the current theocratic system.

Later that year, the storming of the US Embassy in Tehran sparked the 444-day hostage crisis, severing diplomatic relations. The Iran-Iraq war, the US role in Gulf confrontations, and decades of sanctions and proxy conflict have entrenched mistrust.

The 2015 nuclear deal briefly improved relations, but Trump’s withdrawal from the accord in 2018 reignited tensions that persist today.