Monsoon covers India ahead of schedule, deficit poses challenges

THE southwest monsoon current has covered the entire country as of Tuesday, six days ahead of schedule despite a sluggish progress through June, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD).

This development could be a welcome reprieve for farmers, even as monsoon rainfall for the June-September season so far remains 5% below normal, according to data from IMD.

Typically, the annual rains arrive on the Kerala coast around 1 June and then advance inland to cover the whole of the country by 8 July. This year, the monsoon’s pace was notably sluggish through June, with 16 days of sub-par rainfall culminating in an 11% deficit—the steepest in five years. June’s rainfall averaged 147.2 mm, down from the 165.3 mm normal for the month, which accounts for 15% of the season’s total precipitation.

Rains in the June-September monsoon season drive the bulk of India's $3 trillion economy. It accounts for nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall, which plays a crucial role in agriculture, replenishes reservoirs, and helps meet power demand. June and July are critical months for planting kharif crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds and cotton.

Farmers benefitted from the monsoon’s early arrival this year. As of 28 June, kharif crops have been sown over 24.1 million hectares, a 33% increase over the previous year. Given that agriculture constitutes nearly 18% of India’s economy, is one of the largest employment generators, and relies on the monsoon for 70% of its water needs, timely rains are vital.

About 44% of the country’s food production hinges on monsoon rainfall. The agriculture sector saw its growth rate plunge to 1.4% in FY24 from 4.7% in FY23, as uneven rains hurt production of rice, pulses and cane, and perishables like fruit and vegetables. 

The monsoon this year is critical for farm growth rates to revive, which in turn will have a bearing on rural incomes, including wages for those dependent on casual work. Higher incomes can revive sales of consumer goods, which have been tepid for a while.

More Here: Consumer goods makers are hopeful a ‘normal monsoon’ will heat up demand
Beyond agriculture, sectors such as coal-based power plants and steel manufacturing also depend on the monsoon.

Rainfall disparities and trends

Despite the early onset, 39% of the country have experienced deficient or significantly deficient rainfall, according to IMD data as of 2 July. Only 21% of regions received excess rainfall, while 40% had normal showers.

Historically, June has been drier, with below-normal rainfall in 20 of the past 25 years, whereas July typically sees normal to above-normal precipitation.

The monsoon lost momentum in June, after an early arrival on 30 May at Kerala’s southwestern coast. On the same day, it also reached the northeastern region six days ahead of time. The IMD attributes this slowdown to fewer low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal, sluggish advancement in the Indian Ocean, and a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase. However, as the MJO strengthened and moved into the Indian Ocean, rainfall activity increased.

Looking ahead, the IMD forecasts heavy rainfall this week in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand until July 6. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are expected to experience extremely heavy rainfall on 5-6 July, while isolated heavy downpours are predicted for Gujarat on 2 July.