Monsoon is here, at last
THE southwest monsoon officially entered Kerala on Thursday, three days after its expected arrival date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. This marks the formal onset of the country’s four-month rainy season.
After making landfall in Kerala, the monsoon typically progresses northward in phases, covering most parts of the country by mid-July.
The monsoon typically arrives in Kerala around June 1. On May 15, the IMD had forecast that the southwest monsoon was likely to set in over Kerala on May 26, with a model error margin of ± four days.
In a statement issued on Thursday, the IMD said the monsoon had further advanced into the remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, parts of the westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the remaining Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and more parts of the southwest, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal.
The northern limit of the monsoon currently passes through Mangalore, Uthagamandalam, Kodaikanal and Thoothukudi.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, the entire Goa, some parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of Karnataka, the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, the Southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of Westcentral, Eastcentral and Northeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of the Northeastern states during the next 2-3 days,” the IMD said.
Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall in Kerala
The weather department said convective cloudiness had increased over the southeast Arabian Sea during the past two days. It added that the depth of westerlies over the southeast Arabian Sea extended up to 4.5 km above mean sea level, while the strength of the lower-level westerlies was around 20-25 knots.
“There has been widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall over Kerala during the past two days. Considering all the above satisfied conditions, the Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala today, 4 June 2026,” the IMD said.
HT had reported on June 2 that El Niño conditions were developing and were expected to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicated an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June-August 2026.
The probability of El Niño conditions continuing until at least November was estimated to be near or above 90%, with most forecast models suggesting the event could be moderate or possibly strong.
According to a seasonal forecast issued by the WMO on April 30, rainfall during the June-September 2026 southwest monsoon season is likely to remain below normal across much of South Asia, with the strongest signal over central regions.
A map issued by the WMO showed below-normal rainfall across almost all of India.
