India sees moderate to strong El Nino conditions during monsoon season
INDIA is likely to experience moderate to strong El Nino conditions during the June-September southwest monsoon season, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), raising concerns over rainfall patterns and crop prospects.
In its monthly bulletin released this week, the weather bureau said neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a key climate pattern that influences rainfall in the region, are expected to continue through the end of the monsoon season.
The IMD said El Nino conditions are already present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are likely to intensify further during the monsoon months.
"The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Nino conditions," it said.
"Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a further strengthening of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The last occurrence of El Nino conditions was in 2023. Since 2000, similar conditions have also developed in 2002, 2009 and 2015.
Earlier, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday said the government has identified 197 districts across the country as most vulnerable to the impact of El Nino, adding that the ministry has prepared state-wise contingency plans.
The ministry is also running a nationwide awareness campaign — "Khet Bachao Abhiyan" — to reach out to farmers, he added.
"The concern about El Nino is always on my mind 24x7. Not definitive, but 197 districts are identified as most vulnerable," Chouhan told reporters. The ministry is holding weekly meetings to assess the El Nino phenomenon and has stockpiled necessary agricultural inputs, including seeds, to respond swiftly if conditions worsen.
"We have prepared a contingency plan for each state. We will leave no stone unturned to tackle this," he said.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon historically linked to weaker monsoons and heightened rainfall uncertainties — a concern that looms large this year.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the southwest monsoon at around 90 per cent of the long-period average, signalling a below-normal season.
Officials have warned that crop risks could escalate if El Nino conditions intensify in the latter half of the monsoon season. The southwest monsoon set in over Kerala on June 4 and is advancing northward. Current coverage stands at an estimated 20–30 per cent of the country, with full coverage expected around July 15.
