Monsoon reaches Mumbai after a two-week delay

THE southwest monsoon reached Mumbai on Tuesday, nearly two weeks later than its usual onset date, bringing relief to India's financial capital after water shortages forced authorities to curb supplies to households and businesses.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to move to Gujarat, the remaining parts of Maharashtra, northern Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand over the next two days, and into Uttar Pradesh in the next three to four days.

The progress of the monsoon is closely watched because it contributes to about 70% of annual rainfall in the world’s most populous country, where the rural economy relies heavily on agriculture, and contributes significantly to economic growth.

IMD data showed the monsoon's advance has been slower than usual this year, with 248 of India's 741 districts reporting deficient rainfall and another 268 recording large deficiencies during 1-22 June due to El Nino conditions.

While weak rainfall in June is not unusual, the IMD's forecast of seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average has raised concerns about water availability, kharif sowing and reservoir levels heading into the peak monsoon months.

Some eather experts, however, argue that India’s foodgrain yields can withstand the approximately 10% rainfall deficit. “When India gained independence, we had a population of 400 million. Now, it is 1.4 billion. With this increase, our food production has also increased proportionately,” said Ranjan Kelkar, former director general of the IMD.

“Crucially, agriculture has become more dependent on the Rabi harvest than the Kharif harvest. Nature has its own standard deviation, which is why the monsoon onset can be delayed. But it is important to understand that it always shows up,” Kelkar said.

The IMD said maximum temperatures across parts of central India could fall by 2-4 degrees Celsius through 24 June before rising again by 2-3 degrees. In Maharashtra, temperatures are expected to drop by 3-5 degrees through 25 June and remain near those levels thereafter.

Heatwaves, which scorched northern parts of India in the months leading up to the monsoon, are set to continue in isolated areas in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh on 23-24 June, in eastern Uttar Pradesh during 23-27 June, and in western Maharashtra (Vidarbha region) during 23-25 June.

The Vidarbha region is set to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on 29 June, the IMD said, adding that northern regions in Haryana, Rajasthan, and Delhi are likely to experience rainfall in the 23-29 June period. A western disturbance, which hit India on 18 June, is also likely to contribute to rainfall in this region, the IMD said.