Third round of US-Iran nuclear talks to take place in Geneva amid biggest military build-up since 2003

IRAN and the United States are set to resume indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Thursday, seeking to resolve their long-running dispute over Tehran’s nuclear program and avert the threat of fresh U.S. military action. The talks come against the backdrop of a significant American military buildup in the Middle East, raising concerns about possible escalation if diplomacy fails.

The renewed dialogue follows earlier discussions in Geneva last week. The negotiations are being mediated by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who is expected to shuttle between the delegations.

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner will attend the talks on behalf of Washington. Representing Tehran is Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The negotiations aim to address Western concerns that Iran’s nuclear program is designed to develop atomic weapons, an accusation Tehran firmly denies, insisting its program is for peaceful purposes.

President Donald Trump reiterated earlier this week that while he prefers a diplomatic resolution, he would not permit Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. Vice President JD Vance reinforced that stance, describing preventing a nuclear-armed Iran as the “ultimate military objective” should diplomacy collapse.

Military Buildup Raises Stakes

The United States has assembled one of its largest military deployments in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The show of force follows last year’s joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Tehran’s warnings that it would retaliate forcefully if attacked again.

Trump has publicly set a short timeline for progress, warning in February that Iran must reach a deal within weeks or face unspecified but severe consequences.

Regional powers are preparing for potential fallout. Saudi Arabia is reportedly increasing oil production as a contingency plan in case military action disrupts energy supplies from the Gulf. Oil markets have reacted cautiously, with prices edging up amid uncertainty.

Points of Dispute

International Atomic Energy Agency

While the immediate focus is Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stressed that Tehran’s ballistic missile program remains a “major problem” that must eventually be addressed. Iran, however, has resisted expanding the scope of talks beyond nuclear issues.

Tehran is reportedly offering fresh concessions in exchange for sanctions relief and formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes. Yet both sides remain divided over the sequencing and scope of lifting U.S. sanctions, which have severely strained Iran’s economy.

International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi is expected to be present in Geneva for consultations with both delegations, underscoring the technical and monitoring dimensions of any potential agreement.

Pressure Inside Iran

Ali Khamenei

Domestically, Iran’s leadership faces mounting economic and political pressure. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is navigating what analysts describe as one of the most challenging periods of his tenure, marked by tightened sanctions, inflation, and renewed unrest following violent crackdowns earlier this year.

For Tehran, a deal could offer economic breathing space. For Washington, it would represent a diplomatic achievement that avoids another military confrontation in a volatile region.

Analysis

The Geneva talks represent a narrow diplomatic window framed by escalating military posturing. Both sides appear to recognise the high cost of open conflict, yet neither is willing to concede core principles easily. The United States insists on strict limits to prevent weaponisation, while Iran demands sanctions relief and recognition of its sovereign rights.

The presence of senior officials and the mediation by Oman signal seriousness on both sides. However, the compressed timeline set by Washington and the parallel military buildup increase the risk that negotiations could unravel quickly.

Whether Geneva becomes the site of a breakthrough or merely another chapter in decades of deadlock will depend on the willingness of both capitals to balance domestic political pressures with strategic restraint.