Concern and hope over new US leadership

INDIA expects positive results from Donald Trump’s historic return to the White House.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi dialled Trump to congratulate the American leader on winning the fiercely contested US presidential election. Both leaders agreed to work together for world peace.
Trump conveyed in the phone call that "the whole world loves PM Modi", and that India is "a magnificent country" and PM Modi is a "magnificent man". 

Trump told Modi that he considers India and him to be true friends. Modi was one of the first world leaders Trump spoke to after his victory.

Modi also posted about the phone call on X. "Had a great conversation with my friend, President Donald Trump, congratulating him on his spectacular victory. Looking forward to working closely together again to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors," Modi noted.

Trump has been supportive of India in the fight against global terrorism. Trump's new presidency will likely open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if he imposes restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations.

Modi's friendly ties with Mr Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations, but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest, experts opine.

"Trump's presidency can be a new opportunity for India. Trump will impose tariffs and import restrictions on countries that he thinks are not friendly to the US, like China and even some European countries, and this can open markets for Indian exports," former Vice Chairman of the government's think tank NITI Aayog Rajiv Kumar said.

Barclays, in a research report on Wednesday, said trade policy is where Mr Trump is likely to be "most consequential" for emerging Asia, which includes India and China.

According to a report by the global ratings agency Moody's, India stands to gain significantly from the shift of power.

This move will come forth due to the rising tensions between the US and China and potential investment restrictions emerging in the critical sectors, as per the report. 

“In the Asia-Pacific region, the world may witness a reallocation of trade and investment flows away from China due to heightened US scrutiny in strategic sectors. This shift will likely negatively impact China's economy and dampen regional growth. Conversely, nations such as India and those in ASEAN could find new opportunities in this changing landscape,” said Moody's as reported by The Hindustan Times.

However, some experts say Mr Trump's trade protectionist views could have some negative impact on India's exports and might exert some pressure on the rupee in the short term. 

Since Mr Trump's protectionist philosophy of economics is well-known, the process of globalisation may become more strategic and less fair to emerging economies, including India, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy visiting Professor Pinaki Chakraborty said.

Immigrants from India are anxious over the prospect of procuring H-1B visas and US green cards. 
Ahead of the elections, Trump proposed several steps to restrict immigration. These include slashing the number of H-1B visas and introducing stricter criteria.

One of the plans of the Trump administration will be to end the citizenship by birth to immigrant parents.

Even during Trump's first term (2016-2020) in office, the US government had increased restrictions on H-1B visas, which raised initial denial rates from 4 per cent to 17 per cent and L-1 visa denials from 12 per cent to 28 per cent.

Let’s hope that the Indo-US relations will remain strong for the good of the two peoples.