India to witness above-normal temperature in most regions until June

THE India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that most regions of the country will witness above-normal temperatures during April-June. The forecast comes at a time when the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from 19 April onwards.

Above-normal heatwaves are likely in central and western peninsular regions of the country. Gujarat, central Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, north Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience the worst impact of heat waves, said IMD director-general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Monday.

During this period, 10-20 days of heatwave are expected in different parts of the country against a normal of four to eight days, he added. 

The likely weather condition could be due to El Nino that continues to persist till May and neutralize thereafter in June. Towards the second half of the monsoon season (July-September), La Nina conditions are expected, Mohapatra informed.

However, normal to below-normal maximum temperatures will likely be recorded over some parts of the western Himalayan region, northeastern states and north Odisha.

In April, above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country with a high probability over central south India. Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over some parts of the western Himalayan region and the northeastern states in April.

Above-normal heatwave days are likely over many areas in central India and the adjoining areas of the northern plains and south India in April, the weather office said. Two to eight days of heat wave are expected in these regions against a normal of one to three days.

During heatwaves, elevated temperatures pose significant risks, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke.

Additionally, prolonged periods of extreme heat can lead to dehydration and also strain infrastructure like power grids and transportation systems. 

Experts said to address these challenges, it is imperative for authorities to take proactive measures, including providing access to cooling centres, issuing heat advisories, and implementing strategies to alleviate urban heat island effects in affected areas. 

Efforts are essential for safeguarding public health and minimizing the adverse impacts of heatwaves as the Lok Sabha polls are scheduled to take place between 19 April and 1 June. Therefore, the Ministry of Earth Science and the National Disaster Management Authority along with ministries of Jal Shakti, Power, Health and Agriculture have come up with a heat action plan at the city or district level. This is to ensure that billions of citizens can cast their votes seamlessly. 

The Ministry of Agriculture affirmed that the main winter or rabi crop wheat is unlikely to get hit in key regions, including Madhya Pradesh, due to the extreme heatwaves as 90% of harvesting is done. In the case of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, there will be no impact on harvests even if the temperature rises above 35 degrees. 

The estimated production of wheat remains 112.02 million tonnes, up 1.46 million tonnes from the previous year as predicted earlier, an official from the agriculture ministry who was present in the conference said.

As far as rainfall in April is concerned, Mohapatra said that normal precipitation at 88-112% of long period average (LPA) is expected across the country. LPA of rainfall over the country during April based on data from 1971 to 2020 is about 39.2 mm. 

Normal to above-normal rainfall is predicted over most parts of the northwest, and some parts of central and north peninsular India. However, the east and west coasts, parts of east and northeast India south peninsular India may receive below-normal rainfall this month. 

Rainfall in the country remained 3% below normal at 29.9 mm since 1 March, with 16 states having deficient or no rain.