How Vijay held all the cards, saved DMK, AIADMK from *harakiri
*Political harakiri (or hara-kiri) refers to a self-destructive act or a blunder that effectively ruins a politician’s career, reputation, or chances of re-election. It is a metaphor comparing a disastrous political blunder to the traditional Japanese ritual suicide (seppuku) intended to avoid dishonour.
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POLITICS is a game of longevity. In Tamil Nadu, actor-politician and Tamilaga Vetri Kazagham (TVK) chief, Vijay, seems to hold all the cards and is now set to become the chief minister. He has managed to cobble together 10 more seats that were required to stake a claim to government formation.
In doing so, he has saved the DMK and the AIADMK from a political harakari.
There was intense buzz that the DMK and the AIADMK, the archrivals, could join hands to form the government in Tamil Nadu, denying Vijay the chance. Had they done so, it would still have been a moral victory for Vijay and turned him into a bigger political hero for the next election.
Vijay's TVK emerged as the single-largest party after winning 108 of the 234 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly election. Despite the 108 seats, the TVK fell 10 short of the majority mark in the 234-member Assembly. The Congress, an ally of the DMK, supported the TVK, and Vijay has met Governor Rajendra Arlekar twice to stake a claim to the chief minister's post. However, he has been told to return with the support of 118 MLAs.
Here, Vijay made a crucial mistake. He should have staked a claim as the leader of the single-biggest party, and not as a coalition. But that should be no reason to deny him the chance to try and form the government, people, experts and political leaders believe.
This was the TVK's poll debut, and the 108 seats are being seen as a people's mandate for it against the entrenched parties.
The buzz of the DMK and the AIADMK coming together made Vijay warn that its 107 MLAs would resign en masse if that happened. The efforts of the two parties were taking place despite DMK chief and outgoing Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin saying that Vijay should be allowed to stake claim to form the government.
CAN DMK AND AIADMK JOIN HANDS TO FORM GOVT IN TAMIL NADU?
Tamil Nadu witnessed a hung Assembly after 20 years, with no major political party or alliance having a complete majority to rule the state. The politics of Tamil Nadu has always revolved around two major Dravidian forces, the DMK and the AIADMK. These two parties, for nearly five decades, positioned themselves as arch-rivals.
Spooked by the rise of Vijay's TVK as the third political force, some within the DMK and the AIADMK planned to form an alliance and rule the state.
The DMK has 59 seats, and the AIADMK has 47. Even if the two parties aligned, they would have still needed support from the other regional parties with which they are already in alliance.
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The Congress, which fought the election in alliance with the DMK, won five seats. After the results, the Congress ditched the DMK and joined hands with TVK to form the government. The TVK was still six seats short of a simple majority, and when Vijay met Governor Arlekar to stake claim to form the government. The Governor refused and asked Vijay to prove the support of 118 MLAs.
With additional support from the VCK, the CPI and the CPI(M), Vijay has managed to reach the magic number.
WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF VIJAY-LED TVK MLAs RESIGNED EN MASSE?
After the chatter of the DMK and the AIADMK possibly allying to form a government in Tamil Nadu Vijay warned that all the 107 MLAs of the TVK would mass-resign. The warning of mass resignation by Vijay is being viewed as the Trump card against the DMK and the AIADMK.
If Vijay's TVK MLAs resigned en masse, it would not just trigger immediate bypolls in these 107 seats but also cast a shadow on the sanctity of the Tamil Nadu Assembly. Remember, it's not about a handful of MLAs, but almost half the House's strength.
Had the resignations of the MLAs been accepted by the Speaker of the newly formed government, then the 107 Assembly constituencies would fall vacant. Under the Representation of the People Act, 1951, by-elections must be held within six months of a seat falling vacant. By-elections across all 107 seats would be constitutionally mandated, as Tamil Nadu has just elected a fresh assembly.
The DMK and the AIADMK might have ruled Tamil Nadu for five years. But this move by the Dravidian parties would then be portrayed as a betrayal of the people's mandate for Vijay and the TVK.
With the threat of mass resignations, Vijay would have tried to rally people emotionally. Had the TVK MLAs resigned, just imagine how the millions of Vijay fans and supporters would have protested.
Vijay has a huge fanbase, and he is considered the biggest superstar of South Indian cinema. This fanbase of Vijay has been converted into a voter base and now wants Vijay to be the Chief Minister of the State. If the DMK and the AIADMK form an alliance and block Vijay's way, it will make Vijay get more emotionally connected with the people, and it could change the entire mode of Tamil Nadu politics.
That anger from millions of Tamilians is something that the two Dravida parties cannot risk. This would have made them villains and given the TVK the ammunition for a landslide victory in the next election. This is what Vijay has saved them from.
HOW VIJAY TRIED TO STITCH UP A COALITION
Vijay's TVK was in active talks with the regional parties that were part of the DMK alliance. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which together hold the six seats.
While the Thol Thirumavalavan-led VCK has lent him support, the IUML hasn't made its intentions clear on whether it will join the TVK.
"IUML continues to remain firmly within the DMK-led alliance. The party would stand by and accept whatever political decision is taken by DMK president MK Stalin in the current situation," IUML's National President KM Kader Mohideen said on Thursday.
At a moment when Tamil Nadu stood at a political crossroads, Vijay had already achieved something bigger than government formation. He made himself unavoidable in the future of the state's politics. Had the DMK and the AIADMK, spooked by the TVK's rise, ended up forming the government, they would have made themselves hugely unpopular and Vijay an even bigger political phenomenon. That would have reflected in several subsequent elections. Vijay has saved them from committing that political suicide.
