Netanyahu rival Eisenkot to form a govt: How Israel’s political shake-up could reshape its Iran, Gaza war strategy?

MORE than a week after Israel held an election shaped by three years of war in Gaza and subsequent attacks on Iran, neither political bloc managed to secure a majority.

On Saturday (local time), Israeli President Isaac Herzog announced that incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's rival, Gadi Eisenkot, had been selected to form the next government. The political shake-up could have implications for Israel's future military strategy towards Iran and Gaza.

The move is being viewed as the first step towards removing Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, from office. According to AFP, Eisenkot, a former military chief and political newcomer, leads the opposition bloc and has sought to appeal to secular and liberal Israelis. With the opportunity to form the next government, Eisenkot has opened the door to an unlikely alliance with ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, which could give the opposition bloc enough seats to form a coalition government.

Eisenkot later vowed to make every effort to establish a new government. He received the backing of parties representing 67 lawmakers, compared with 46 lawmakers who supported Netanyahu's bloc.

However, the support for Eisenkot came from groups with differing political positions. These included Arab parties, which made significant gains in the election amid voter dissatisfaction with Netanyahu, as well as right-leaning opposition factions that oppose relying on Arab lawmakers to form a government.

Here's what Herzog said

Herzog, who held consultations with all parties during the week following the October 27 elections, said on Saturday that Eisenkot would get the first opportunity to form a government. A formal appointment was scheduled for Sunday (local time), during an official ceremony at the president's residence in Jerusalem, Herzog's office said.

The Israeli President, who was once part of the now-defunct left-wing Labour Party and has maintained a working relationship with Netanyahu, has indicated that he would like to explore the possibility of a national unity government that brings together Jewish Israelis from across the political spectrum.

While Netanyahu, who has led the country for nearly two decades and faces corruption charges that could potentially lead to jail time if he leaves office, has called for a unity government, the opposition bloc has made it clear that it wants him removed before agreeing to form a national unity government.

The possibility of Netanyahu's exit raises questions about whether a change in leadership could also bring a shift in Israel's approach to its ongoing conflicts. With the war in Gaza and tensions with Iran shaping the country's security priorities, much will depend on Eisenkot's political alliances and his approach to regional security.

Can Netanyahu's exit reshape Israel's war strategy in Iran and Gaza?

According to a Reuters report dated October 21, Israel is unlikely to see a major change in its Iran war policy. Regional policymakers and analysts suggest that Tehran will continue to be Tel Aviv's chief adversary and that military force will remain the government's preferred tool. Meanwhile, Palestinian statehood is likely to remain a distant prospect.

Analysts believe the real divide will not be over the direction of policy but rather its intensity. This includes how aggressively Israel pursues its military campaigns, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether a future leader takes a different approach to democracy.

Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib told Reuters that Israel's approach towards the Palestinians is unlikely to undergo any major change, as political parties continue to compete by adopting tougher positions amid a rightward shift in public opinion.

Another Reuters report suggested that Netanyahu and Eisenkot share similar positions on opposing an independent Palestinian state and maintaining a hardline approach towards Gaza. Both have indicated that they would resume military operations if Hamas, whose founding charter calls for Israel's destruction, refuses to disarm.

However, it remains to be seen whether Israeli-Arab parties, which are part of Eisenkot's opposition bloc, will be able to influence him to adopt a more conciliatory approach towards the Palestinians and pursue a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict.