US Midterms: Can Democrats win back the Senate? Polls show party ahead in 5 GOP-held battleground seats

DEMOCRATS appear to be gaining momentum in the final stretch before the November 3 US midterm elections, with fresh polling showing the party leading in five Republican-held Senate battleground states and holding a narrow edge in another.

The results suggest Democrats could be within striking distance of reclaiming control of the Senate.

The latest New York Times/Siena University polls show Democratic candidates ahead in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Alaska, while Iowa remains a closely fought contest.

Democrats are also leading in Michigan, where the party currently holds the Senate seat.

The findings come as Democrats attempt to regain control of Congress amid growing voter dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, particularly over the economy and the rising cost of living.
Democrats lead in key Republican-held Senate battlegrounds

The polls indicate particularly strong performances by Democrats in Texas and Kansas, two traditionally Republican states where the party has not won Senate elections since 1988 and 1932, respectively.

In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 50% to 43%. In Kansas, Democrat Chris Hamilton is ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall, securing 49% support against Marshall's 44%.

Democrat Graham Platner is leading Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine by 51% to 45%, while in Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a five-point advantage over Republican Jon Husted, with 49% support against 44%.

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola has a narrower lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, polling at 48% compared with Sullivan's 46%.

Iowa remains the closest contest among the states surveyed. Democrat Josh Turek is polling at 48%, just one percentage point ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson at 47%.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 53% to 42%, according to the surveys.

The New York Times/Siena polls surveyed 610 voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio and 1,215 in Texas.

Can Democrats regain control of the Senate?

The latest polling could strengthen Democratic hopes of regaining control of the upper chamber, although the party faces a challenging electoral map.

Democrats need to retain all the Senate seats they currently hold and flip at least four Republican-held seats to secure a majority.

The task has been considered difficult because several of the Republican-held constituencies they need to win are in traditionally conservative states.

However, the latest New York Times/Siena findings suggest Democrats have made significant gains across several of these battlegrounds. If the polling trends translate into actual votes, the party could emerge with control of the Senate.

Trump's approval rating and economy weigh on Republicans

Voter dissatisfaction with Trump and concerns about his handling of the economy appear to be emerging as significant challenges for Republican candidates.

According to The New York Times, just 38% of likely voters across the seven surveyed states approved of Trump's job performance. The figure is particularly notable given that Trump won five of these states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.

The economy, especially the rising cost of living, has emerged as a central issue shaping voter preferences ahead of the midterms.

The New York Times/Siena surveys found that Democrats enjoy a nine-percentage-point advantage over Republicans on the cost-of-living issue across the seven battleground states.

Democrats lead Republicans on this question in each of the states surveyed.

However, the findings also point to potential vulnerabilities for Democrats. A section of voters remains undecided, while voters who made their choices within the past month favoured Republicans by a nine-percentage-point margin.

What do the broader congressional polls indicate?

The Senate contests are part of a wider battle for control of Congress, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats up for election on November 3.

According to NBC News, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate. A majority requires 51 seats, including two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to secure a majority of 218.

The NBC News polling average puts Trump's approval rating at 38%, while 60% of Americans disapprove of his performance.

On the question of congressional control, 52% of Americans prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, compared with 44% who favour Republican control.

NBC News Decision Desk ratings classify five Senate races as toss-ups, while 11 House contests are also considered toss-ups.

The most competitive House races are concentrated in Texas, California, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania, although closely fought contests are spread across several other states.

The two sets of polling findings point to a difficult electoral environment for Republicans as voters prepare to decide the balance of power in Congress.