Trump attacks on Pope Leo will hurt GOP gains with Catholic Americans: Experts

WHILE the Catholic Church teaches forgiveness, American Catholics may not extend mercy to President Donald Trump over his attacks on Pope Leo XIV, some political observers said.

Trump's unapologetic and belligerent attitude toward Leo, the first American pope, and his now-removed social media post depicting himself as a Christ-like figure have been met with widespread criticism from Catholics on both sides of the aisle, according to Ryan Burge, a professor at the John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics at Washington University in St. Louis.

"The majority of Catholics adore Leo and are appalled that anyone would go after him like this, especially with that meme," Burge, a former Baptist pastor who has researched voting trends for American religious groups, said of Trump's rhetoric.

Burge predicts Trump's words will have an impact on the midterm elections and beyond.

A shift to the right for Catholics

Catholics have tended in the past to split their vote 50-50 between the two parties, Burge said, but have voted more conservative in increasing numbers since 2016.

The ABC News exit poll found that 59% of Catholics voted for Trump in 2024 compared to 39% for then-Vice President Kamala Harris. That was an improvement for Trump from 2020, when Catholics preferred Joe Biden, who is Catholic, 52% to 47%. And 2016 exit polls showed the Catholic vote split evenly between then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Trump.

Trump's policies of increased deportations and military attacks combined with the faltering economy was already turning some Catholic voters away from the president before Trump started attacking the pope, Burge said.

"This might be the inflection point where many Catholics turn away from the Republican Party," he said.

Two recent polls fielded before Trump's attacks on the pope found that American Catholics are more likely to approve of the president than Americans or voters overall.

Among Catholic adults overall, a CNN poll conducted from March 26 to 30 found 42% of Catholics approving of Trump and 57% disapproving, markedly better than his overall rating of 35% approving to 64% disapproving among adults overall.

Among Catholic registered voters, a Quinnipiac poll conducted between March 19 and 23 found 48% of Catholic voters approving of Trump and 44% disapproving, also notably better than his 38% approval and 56% disapproval rating among registered voters overall.

Some Catholics had started turning away from Trump already

Burge noted that Trump's policies that increased deportations of immigrants, many of whom came from deeply Catholic Latino communities, and vitriolic rhetoric against his opponents have shocked many Catholics, who may have backed Trump for other reasons such as the economy or reproductive rights.

"Trump has not been sitting in good graces with Catholics even before the pope comments," he said. "Now he's poking them in the eye by going after Leo."

A September 2025 poll by the Pew Research Center found that 84% of U.S. Catholics had a favorable view of Leo.

Margaret Susan Thompson, a professor of history at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, told ABC News there has been a growing division between liberal and conservative American Catholics over the last couple of years, fueled by Leo's and predecessor Pope Francis' progressive leadership.

"I think [Trump] is losing even some of his [Catholic] supporters, or they are moderating their support," she told ABC News.

Thompson noted that Trump's comments have been so harsh and controversial that even conservative-leaning Catholics are speaking out against the president and defending Leo, she said.

Patrick Kelly, the head of the Knights of Columbus, a more than century-old Catholic fraternal organisation, issued a strongly worded statement Wednesday stating that many "Catholics and other people of goodwill have been deeply disappointed by the disparaging comments directed at Pope Leo XIV by the President of the United States."

"The Successor of Saint Peter is not a politician -- he is the Vicar of Christ, entrusted with proclaiming the Gospel and shepherding souls," Kelly added, noting that "Pope Leo XIV has consistently called for peace, dialogue, and restraint in a world marked by war and suffering."

Robert Barron, the Bishop of the Diocese of Winona-Rochester who had attended an Easter lunch hosted by the president at the White House, called Trump's comments about Leo "entirely inappropriate and disrespectful," in an X post on Monday.

Several prominent Catholic Democrats in Congress, like Sen. Mark Kelly and Rep. Debbie Dingell, put out statements decrying Trump's attacks, with Kelly calling them "abhorrent."

Some Republicans express disappointment

Burge said the responses to Trump's attack on the pope from administration members and Republicans on the Hill demonstrates a growing problem the GOP has on its hands. While some like Vance, House Speaker Mike Johnson and border czar Tom Homan have defended Trump and joined in on the criticism of Leo, other Republicans on the Hill have expressed disappointment in Trump's rhetoric without criticizing the president.

For example. Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Pa., was asked about Trump's attacks on the pope Tuesday at the Semafor World Economy conference and responded, "I didn't love it."

"I wish he hadn't done it. And the reason is I just think it's distracting from this moment we're in," he said.

"Republicans are truly in a tough spot," Burge said. "They know if they disagree with Trump publicly, he will go after them and they lose his support in the midterms. If they back Trump, they lose those Catholic voters who are on the fence and disturbed by these comments."

Vance, who converted to Catholicism in 2019 and is publishing a book on his faith, has been the most vocal Republican Catholic defending Trump and claimed the president's meme was a joke.

Vance continued to push back against Leo on Tuesday when he was asked about the feud during a Turning Point USA event in Georgia, specifically Leo's statement on X where he said "Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs."

"In the same way that it's important for the vice president of the United States to be careful when I talk about matters of public policy, I think it's very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology," Vance said.

Bishop James Massa, the chair of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops' Committee on Doctrine, pushed back on Vance's comments in a statement Wednesday.

"When Pope Leo XIV speaks as supreme pastor of the universal Church, he is not merely offering opinions on theology; he is preaching the Gospel and exercising his ministry as the Vicar of Christ," he said.

Johnson told reporters Wednesday, "taken a little bit aback" about the pope's comments about the Iran war," and appeared to back the president's actions.

"You know, a pontiff or any religious leader can say anything they want. But obviously if you wade into political waters, I think you should expect some political response, and I think the Pope's received some of that," he said.

Thompson said those leaders will have to continue to reckon with the feud as Trump continues to rail against the Vatican.

"A lot of Catholics are very upset by the president and their feelings are also reflected in their religious leaders, the bishops, the sisters, who are vocally calling out Trump," she said.

Trump doubling down

But Trump appears not to be backing down, making more disparaging comments about Leo this week.

"I have a right to disagree with the pope," he told reporters Thursday.

He said in a social media post on Tuesday that the pontiff needed to be informed that Iran had killed tens of thousands of protesters, and that it was "absolutely unacceptable" for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

Trump also shared a post from a user on X showing old posts from an X account that belonged to Leo before he was pope, when he was Cardinal Robert Prevost, including some criticizing Trump and Vance.

"It's fascinating to see what social media reveals about a person before they become the Pope," the shared post read. "Before he became Pope Leo XIV, Cardinal Robert Prevost was on Twitter trashing Trump, criticizing Vance, calling for open borders, promoting COVID vaccines, endorsing stricter gun control, and tweeting after George Floyd."

"Not good!!!" Trump wrote in his own post.

On Wednesday, the president shared an image of him being embraced by Jesus in front of an American flag.

Trump isn't the first US president to have disputes with a pope

"The Radical Left Lunatics might not like this, but I think it is quite nice!!!," Trump wrote on his social media platform."

Later that day, Archbishop Thomas Wenski of the Diocese of Miami, said in an op-ed the Miami Herald that the federal government "abruptly decided to end more than 60 years of relationship with Catholic Charities in the Archdiocese of Miami."

"The Archdiocese of Miami’s services for unaccompanied minors have been recognized for their excellence and have served as a model for other agencies throughout the country," he wrote, but it has been "stripped of funding and will be forced to shut down within three months."

Leo, by contrast has not talked about Trump since Monday when he told reporters that he had "no fear" of the Trump administration and was going to continue to promote the Church's teachings of peace.

He is currently on a papal visit to several African nations, where he has continued to preach his message.

"Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth," he told a crowd in Cameroon on Thursday.

Burge said it's hard to predict if more Catholic Americans will vote blue at the polls, but the amount of vitriol thrown by Trump at the holiest figure in the church will linger in the minds of the community for a long time and hamper the GOP's connection with the community.

"This is definitely the biggest factor that will hurt the GOP among Catholics in the midterms," he said.