Exit poll predicts winds of change in Kerala: UDF set to return to power, big setback for LDF

A NARROW vote share edge but a clearer lead in seats suggests Kerala could be on the cusp of a political shift, with the Congress-led UDF gaining momentum over the incumbent LDF.

According to exit poll predictions by VoteVibe, released exclusively on CNN-News18, the UDF is projected to win 70–80 seats (midpoint 75), comfortably crossing the majority mark of 71 in the 140-member assembly. Meanwhile, the LDF, led by CM Pinarayi Vijayan, is projected to get 58–68 seats (midpoint 63), falling short of the numbers required to form the government, as per the exit polls.

Meanwhile, BJP is expected to secure 0–4 seats with a vote share of 14%, signalling that the party may expand its footprint in the southern state, the VoteVibe poll predicted.

The exit poll predicted 42.6% vote share for the UDF, compared to 39.5% for the CPM-led LDF, a gap of around 3 percentage points that sits within the margin of error, but still gives the opposition a slight advantage.

Demographically, the UDF’s advantage is driven by strong support among men (44.8% vs 37% for LDF) and young voters aged 18–24 (47% vs 36.8%), the exit poll showed.

The LDF retains an edge among women (41.8% vs 40.6%) and older voters, though these margins are much tighter, it further said.

Community-wise, the divides are stark. The LDF dominates among SC/Dalits (52.8% vs 25.3%) and leads among OBCs (43.7% vs 34.2%).

In contrast, the UDF draws overwhelming support from Muslims (54.2%) and Christians (58.3%). Upper caste Hindus are split almost evenly, with LDF at 33.7%, UDF at 32.3%, and BJP at 30%, as per the exit polls.

Voting for the Kerala assembly election was held in a single phase across 140 constituencies on April 9.

In 2021, most exit polls predicted that the LDF would win 104-120 seats, whereas the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) was predicted to be reduced to 20-36 constituencies.

The BJP was projected to end with 0-2 seats. 

The incumbent LDF, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), returned to power with a historic win, securing 99 of the 140 seats.