How La Nina will impact monsoon in India
THE first monsoon prediction in India for this year has been made by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center. The Center has issued two separate forecasts for the periods from April to June, and July to September respectively.
According to the predictions, India is likely to experience above-normal precipitation during its peak monsoon season from July to September. This forecast change is attributed to the recent ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) alert which predicts a smooth transition from El Nino to La Nina condition.
In its July to September outlook, the APCC Climate Center stated, "Enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation is predicted for the region spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia and the southern South Pacific. A tendency for above-normal precipitation is expected for some regions of East Asia and northern Australia."
The APEC Climate Center introduced an ENSO alert system update on March 15, 2024. The current ENSO status predicts a La Nina WATCH from April to September 2024.
This alert underlines the crucial need for stakeholders and policymakers to closely observe climate patterns in the approaching months due to potential impacts associated with La Nina conditions, such as altered weather patterns and consequent environmental consequences.
The recent multi-model ensemble (MME) temperature probability forecast displays differing accuracy levels in predicting above-normal, near-normal, and below-normal temperatures across various regions for April to June 2024.
Europe posts a significant Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 66.9%, indicating a reliable forecast, while Southern Asia shows an even higher HSS of 82.0%. The Middle East also shows substantial forecast reliability with 70.5%.
Overall, the global HSS stands at 65.8%, with the Northern and Southern Extratropics registering scores of 67.9% and 54.2%, consecutively. The Tropics, Australasia, and North America display strong HSS values, with Australasia scoring highest at 81.5%. In contrast, Africa portrays a relatively low HSS of 5.5%, suggesting less forecast accuracy for this region.
These scores are based on climatology from 1991-2010, with pie chart sizes in the report reflecting the APCC APEC Climate Center's historical Hindcast HSS data range.
