How will India react to reciprocal tariffs as April 2 deadline inches closer? Trump says, ‘going to be nicer’

US President Donald Trump announced that he plans to begin his reciprocal tariff strategy with “all countries,” dismissing speculation that the initial tariffs, set to be unveiled on April 2, would target only 10 to 15 nations.

“You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I haven’t heard a rumor about 15 countries, 10 or 15.”

“We’re going to be much nicer than they were to us, but it’s substantial money for the country,” he said.

Trump is set to launch so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2, a centerpiece of his plan to rebalance global trade and boost US manufacturing while collecting tariff payments to fund his domestic policy priorities, including an extension of tax cuts from his first administration and additional tax promises made during the 2024 campaign.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett recently told Fox Business that the administration’s tariff targets would focus on 10 to 15 countries with the most significant trade imbalances, though he did not specify which ones, Reuters reported.

The White House hasn’t yet outlined what tariffs are coming, how they’ll be calculated, or what the targeted countries need to do to secure coveted exemptions. Trump has also said his tariffs will account for other countries’ non-tariff barriers, though he hasn’t detailed how those calculations will be made. The administration also hasn’t specified when these new tariffs will take effect.

Asked by Sky News’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme how damaging she thought the tariffs could be, UK Secretary of State for the Home Department Yvette Cooper said, “In the end, if you increase barriers to trade right across the world, that’s not good for the world economy, let alone any individual country as part of that.”

Trump sees tariffs as a way to safeguard the US economy from unfair international competition and a bargaining tool to secure better trade deals. However, the threat of a trade war is causing market instability and fueling worries about a potential recession in the U.S.

He has pledged to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that levy fees on U.S. exports, aiming to match their duties. In February, Trump signed a memorandum instructing U.S. trade officials to craft customised countermeasures for each targeted country.

India and the US have agreed to initiate sectoral talks under the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) in the coming weeks, the commerce ministry informed last Saturday.

This decision followed four days of negotiations between senior officials from both countries, which concluded on Saturday. The ministry stated, “Sectoral expert-level engagements under the BTA will begin virtually in the coming weeks, setting the stage for an early in-person negotiating round.”

During these discussions, the two sides held a productive exchange of views on deepening bilateral cooperation in priority areas, including increasing market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers and deepening supply chain integration in a mutually beneficial manner, it added.

India and the US aim to finalise the first phase of their trade agreement by the fall of 2025 (September- October) and have set a goal to more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from the current $190 billion, AFP reported.

The US has requested duty concessions in sectors such as certain industrial goods, automobiles, wines, petrochemicals, dairy, and agricultural products like apples, tree nuts, and alfalfa hay. In return, India may push for duty reductions in labor-intensive industries like textiles.

Earlier, Trump said, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a “very smart man” and a “great friend of mine” while emphasising that tariff talks would “work out very well between India and our country.”

Indian industries and exporters have urged the government to safeguard them from the US's reciprocal tariffs, requesting exemptions as such tariffs could severely impact them, given the US is India’s largest trading partner.

The US is pushing for a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement while seeking greater access for American businesses in India’s agriculture sector. Experts believe India is unlikely to include dairy and agriculture in the trade talks, as these sectors are politically sensitive.

India-US trade hits $119.71 billion in 2023-24

In 2024, US agricultural exports to India touched $1.6 billion, with key export items being almonds ($868 million), pistachios ($121 million), apples ($21 million), and ethanol ($266 million).

In 2024, India's key exports to the US included drug formulations and biologicals ($8.1 billion), telecom instruments ($6.5 billion), precious and semi-precious stones ($5.3 billion), petroleum products ($4.1 billion), gold and other precious metal jewellery ($3.2 billion), ready-made cotton garments with accessories ($2.8 billion), and iron and steel products ($2.7 billion).

Also Read: India open to tariff cuts on $23 billion of US imports amid trade negotiations

India's imports from the US included crude oil ($4.5 billion), petroleum products ($3.6 billion), coal and coke ($3.4 billion), cut and polished diamonds ($2.6 billion), electric machinery ($1.4 billion), aircraft, spacecraft, and parts ($1.3 billion), and gold ($1.3 billion).

In 2023-24, the US was India's largest trading partner, with bilateral goods trade totalling USD 119.71 billion — $77.51 billion in exports and $42.19 billion in imports, resulting in a trade surplus of $35.31 billion.

Since April 2000, India has received $67.8 billion in foreign direct investments (FDI) from the US till September 2024.